No disappointment has happened since there was no charm
In October 2024, the anti-war psychological assistance project Without Prejudice began its study with the goal of understanding what people living in Russia feel and think after more than 2.5 years of the war.
What is the essence of the study and why can it be trusted?
The study consisted of in-depth interviews with each respondent. Each respondent answered three blocks of questions:
The first set consisted of general questions about their age, gender and occupation.
The second set was devoted to the respondent’s psychological state throughout the entire period of the war. The questions of their main disappointments with the war and faith in their future in Russia were also discussed.*
* It is important that respondents were asked to select time intervals and analyze the dynamics of their emotional state, recall some ups and downs.
The third and largest block was devoted to the opposition and the attitude towards it before and during the war, a possible new leader and his model for the future.
At the same time, the respondent could avoid the given topics and share any experiences. This allowed us to draw up the most complete picture. Those who found it difficult to answer some of the interview questions were asked to return with answers at a time convenient for them. Corrections were made to their questionnaires within two weeks.
Why did the Without Prejudice project decide to conduct this study?
The project began its work from the first days of the war and was the first to openly state that it was necessary to provide psychological assistance to Russian citizens, and not just Ukrainians.
Throughout the war, the project has been providing free crisis assistance, avoiding condemning Russians in the most unbearable and emotionally difficult periods (such as Navalny’s death, mobilization, and others). Thus, we earned the trust of the respondents, which let them speak openly, with no fear of expressing their true feelings and emotions during the interview.
The project has always existed autonomously and is not financially dependent on grantors or opposition forces. This gives us the opportunity to explore topics that are of interest to the project team and that bring real help to the society.
Who took part in the study?
105 respondents participated in the study:
📌 95 people from the Russian Federation and 10 outside it;
📌17 men and 88 women.
Participants' ages range from 18 to 67 years. The approximate average age of the respondents was 40 years.
Who are these people?
These are the most ordinary citizens of the Russian Federation, often without significant political activity before the war. They all have different economic status and different spheres of activity (teachers, managers, translators, designers, freelancers, doctors, unemployed and housewives). Many of the respondents work for government agencies.
Most participants expressed fatigue and disengagement from politics, and some mentioned that they had not previously supported the protests or were not at all interested in the opposition.
Quotes from the interviews: -"I didn’t follow politics and considered myself apolitical. At the beginning of the war, I was surprised how many supported the government’s actions"
-"I wasn’t interested in politics, I thought it was something distant. The beginning of the war came as a shock, and I suddenly realized how much this all affects us"
Psychological condition of respondents
88 out of 105 respondents (approximately 84%) described their current state as severe, depressed or depressive.
Quotes from interviews: -"Today it is constant stress, constant anxiety, which sometimes turns into quite serious panic attacks" -"A monstrous, terrible, absolutely hopeless state, black despair and lack of prospects" -"The feeling of viscosity, like a swamp, from which you are trying to get out, but with every step it becomes harder. I live my life, but with enormous external complications that do not allow me to move forward calmly"
It is important to note that for 33% (34 out of 105 respondents) emotional exhaustion reached such a level that the desire to end the war at any cost came to the fore.
Quotes from interviews: - "I don’t care how the war ends, as long as these horrors and deaths stop. This has become more important than any principles"
-"The length of the war is the main disappointment. I’m not talking about a return to some borders or international recognition, I just want the war to end and people to stop dying"
-"I'm already tired of waiting and analyzing. Let it end as it ends, as long as it’s possible to live again"
Habituation effect
At the same time, 28 respondents mentioned that their condition had improved over the past 2.5 years due to adaptation, therapy or a change in circumstances (emigration). This is approximately 27% of the total number of participants.
Quotes from interviews: -"At some point, I decided to allow myself to live. I stopped postponing decisions and returned to my life"
-"Now the condition has stabilized. Psychotherapy and internal adaptation to the war helped. I refuse to suffer constantly"
-"Life goes on, things are done, some processes that are planned, they are happening, and some forecasts appear. And then there were no forecasts at all. One can say that this is an adaptation purely at the physiological level"
What helped you adapt?
Retreat to personal matters
Quotes from interviews: -"I decided to allow myself to live. I’m hiding here now. I have my own life, and yes, it helps. It’s like nothing is happening" -"Some small things help me, so positive and useful, and with visible results. For example, in the morning I light the stove so as not to freeze, I carry water from the well. It’s like coming back to life"
Limiting exposure to news
Quotes from interviews: -"Now I practically don’t watch the news, I don’t read. I understand that it’s hide and seek, but it helps to just live for a while"
Emigrate
Quotes from interviews: -"I understand that I have a family and responsibilities, but if they pass a law on the death penalty, this will become a red line for me, beyond which I will not be able to stay"
—"No way at all. I don’t see an option to stay here. But, unfortunately, I don’t see an option for me to get out of here. Either I have to wait for the children there to get on their feet and be able to get us out, or I should try somehow… But we are from a poor class"
Many respondents, even those who have not yet emigrated, are considering the possibility of leaving, linking their future with "red lines"—events or conditions that will force them to leave the country.
The main reasons for thinking about emigration: — Fear for the future; — Deterioration of the socio-political situation; — Caring for children.
Summary
War changes the internal world, transforms the perception of life, values and attitudes of respondents. Although people adapt to new realities, it is emotionally difficult for them to re-evaluate their beliefs.
Here are a few key points that highlight the changes:
Quotes from interviews: -"The illusory nature of normal life before the war also let me go. Now it is important for me to understand that this is a new reality, and I need to learn to live in it" -"The humanistic flair of the last 50 years after World War II turned out to be an illusion. People haven’t changed, they remain just as cruel"
-"The war affected everyone. We lose everything, including relationships with loved ones. This feeling of helplessness does not leave"
At the beginning of the study of the mental state of respondents, our team did not fully understand the scale of the psychological crisis, which affects even those who were previously apolitical.
During the war, 2 aspects turned out to be the most destructive to the people’s psyche:
Disillusionment with people as it has undermined social connections and a sense of unity;
The duration of the war, even if people are not directly involved in the fighting.
Interview Results
What was the biggest disappointment of this war?
74% said that it was disappointment in people (including loved ones, colleagues, and society as a whole)
Quotes from interviews: -"The main disappointment is people. My parents are for the war, my sister… My ideas about people turned out to be an illusion"
For 18% of participants, the disappointment was the duration of the war and its consequences
Quotes from interviews: -"The main disappointment is the length of the war. I can’t believe this is still going on"
For 5% of respondents — lack of international assistance
Quotes from interviews: -“I was disappointed in the Western countries, in their help, in everything. Lots of talk, very little action”
3% of respondents answered that it is the political system and leaders
Quotes from interviews: -“Disappointment in leaders. No responsibility for this chaos»
How do you see your future in Russia?
48% answered that they do not see a future in Russia at all
Quotes from interviews: -"At the moment, I do not see my future in Russia. It’s hard for me to imagine that something will change for the better here" -"If I stay here, it will only be because I can’t leave"
For 35% of the participants, the future is focused on survival (micro level)
Quotes from interviews: -"I just want my family to be safe." I can’t even plan anything more now" -"I now only have plans for the next couple of months — how to live, how to meet current needs"
12% of respondents hope for changes in Russia
Quotes from interviews: -"I believe that young people will be able to change the situation. Maybe not soon, but Russia can become different"
5% of respondents plan to emigrate
Quotes from interviews: -"My future is connected with other countries. I do not want to stay in this society, where everything is arranged like this"
The majority of respondents are extremely pessimistic and focused on short-term prospects and survival. Only a small part of respondents hope for positive changes in Russia.
The third set of questions
The third part of the questions was related to the opposition and the attitude towards it.
Did you follow the opposition before the war started?
Yes, I followed the opposition as a phenomenon, but without reference to specific leaders — 63 respondents (60%)
Quotes from interviews: -"I followed the opposition before the war. I treated it with respect, especially toward civil activism"
-"I followed the opposition in Russia. The attitude was positive, as towards brave and courageous people"
Did not follow the opposition — 42 respondents (40%)
Quotes from interviews: -"I did not follow the opposition before the war. I was completely apolitical" -"I did not follow the opposition. I wasn’t interested in that"
From these data we see that most of the respondents still showed interest in the opposition, but a significant part of them was apolitical before the start of the war.
Attitudes toward the opposition before the war
Positive attitude, but without faith in success — 32%
Quotes from interviews: -"I supported the opposition, but I always knew that they would not be able to change anything in Russia. They simply do not have the resources and support"
Positive attitude and faith in change – 12%
Quotes from interviews: -"I hoped that the opposition would be able to change something, but I understood that it would take a long time"
Skeptical attitude – 16%
Quotes from interviews: -"It always seemed to me that the opposition was disunited, and they did not have a unified plan of action"
Why did many not believe in the success of the opposition even before the war?
Systemic weakness
Quotes from interviews: -"The opposition has never had the tools to really influence the government"
Disunity
Quotes from interviews: -"They were always separated, and because of this the impression of chaos appeared"
Repression by the authorities
Quotes from interviews: -"I saw them being arrested, and I understood that they would not be able to withstand such pressure"
Do you follow the opposition at the moment?
Yes, they do follow the opposition — 47%.
No, they do not follow the opposition — 53%.
Quotes from interviews: -"I follow the opposition less now. I just don’t see the point in their actions anymore"
According to the data obtained, 13% of the respondents who were interested in the actions of the opposition have now lost interest in it after the beginning of the war.
The main reasons for the decline in interest in the opposition
Disappointment in the opposition as a phenomenon (47%)
Quotes from interviews: -"I had deep respect for these people, but now I see how they cannot unite, and this creates a feeling of alienation"
-"I followed the investigations, but recently I stopped watching because I see conflicts between the leaders"
Fatigue and emotional burnout (30%)
Quotes from interviews: -"I stopped following the opposition after the war started. There is too much stress, and I no longer have the strength to perceive their rhetoric"
-"It has become emotionally difficult for me to follow politics, so I have disconnected from the news"
Lack of influence and practical results (18%)
Quotes from interviews: -"The opposition talks a lot, but does little real action. It seems useless, and I have lost interest"
Aggressive rhetoric and conflicts (5%)
Quotes from interviews: -"There is a lot of hatred in their words, it is scary. I would like to see a more constructive approach"
The main reasons for the decline in interest in the opposition are related to disappointment due to its inability to unite, the feeling of the meaninglessness of their activities and isolation from the people living in Russia.
Do you believe in the possibility of a new, previously unknown leader emerging in the opposition?
Reasons for the demand for a new leader:
— Many respondents noted that the opposition is too disunited, and a new leader could become a unifying figure;
— The need for a leader who represents the interests of "ordinary people" and understands the real needs of society;
— Disappointment in current leaders and their ability to unite the people.
The problem of the distance between the opposition and the people in Russia:
Geographical separation and remoteness
A significant part of the opposition is located outside of Russia, which creates a feeling of their isolation from the everyday realities of people living inside the country.
Respondents often emphasize that opposition figures abroad cannot understand and effectively respond to the current problems of Russians.
Elitism and impracticality
The opposition is perceived as focused on ideological debates and abstract ideas rather than practical actions.
Many respondents note that the opposition is not familiar enough with the real needs of "ordinary people".
Distrust and disappointment
Some respondents are disappointed in the opposition due to internal conflicts and the lack of a unified agenda. Mistrust is exacerbated by the fact that many opposition leaders do not demonstrate closeness to the people and do not offer solutions that would be perceived as real and achievable.
Ideologic distance
Some respondents note that the current opposition is more appealing to liberal-minded citizens, ignoring the interests of the more conservative or neutral part of the population.
Blaming all Russians
Some respondents point out that the opposition uses rhetoric that places collective responsibility on all Russian citizens, which causes rejection. Respondents feel unfairly accused, even though they do not support the war or the government.
Quotes from interviews: -"Most of the opposition is abroad. They can help those who left, but inside Russia their influence is minimal. We remain here without representation"
-"They argue with each other more than they think about the people in Russia. Scandals and disagreements are not what we need now"
-"I don’t feel like the opposition represents me. They discuss important, but abstract things. We have problems surviving here every day"
-"People live differently here, and they talk as if about another country. There is no feeling that they understand what it means to be in Russia now"
-"For most people, basic things are important: work, family, security. I don’t see any of them talking about it"
How do you see the future opposition leader?
27.8% of the participants answered that they would like to see a woman as the opposition leader.
Respondents who want to see a female leader most often mention the following qualities:
— Less prone to violence — Rational approach — Understanding of family and social values
Quotes from interviews: -"At the beginning of the war, it seemed to me that it should be a woman, because a woman would really be able to convey humanistic values"
-"Perhaps a woman. Because women have been coming up with more rational ideas and less violence lately. I cannot remember a single female dictator"
-"For me, for example, this is an important factor. A woman leader can better understand us — women, mothers who have lost their children"
The rest of the respondents had difficulties with this question, since they did not have a clear idea of the figure of the future leader.
We asked the second group of participants an additional question about what kind of leader they would definitely not want to see. Based on their answers, we compiled a list of unattractive qualities of a future leader.
Main undesirable traits of opposition leaders
Populism (32%)
Opposition leaders who use loud but empty statements cause mistrust. Populism is perceived as manipulation without real action.
Quotes from interviews: -"Silent* people need to be touched, inspired. They are afraid, but they want change, and the leader must speak to them honestly, but without pressure"
* The silent majority are people who do not participate in active political processes and avoid openly expressing their opinions, but experience internal doubts and disappointment.
Elitism and detachment from the people (24%)
Opposition leaders who seem to be far from the real life of "ordinary people"
Quotes from interviews: -"I would like him not to be from the Moscow crowd, so that he would understand what kind of country he lives in"
-"He must be from the people. Not necessarily an activist or politician, but a person who has lived like us and understands what we think"
Aggressiveness and authoritarian methods (18%)
Lies and lack of sincerity (16%)
Quotes from interviews: -"Naturally, he should not have skeletons in the closet. He should allow himself to be sincere and honest"
Lack of a clear strategy and action plan (10%)
Quotes from interviews: -"He should have an idea of what he wants and how to get it. A person with a picture in his head and an understanding of the situation"
Main Desirable Traits of an Opposition Leader
Clear language and ease of communication (25%)
Quotes from interviews: -"He must speak the language of the people, not the elite. This is the main gap now. We do not understand them, they speak somehow detachedly"
Honesty, moral stability and trust (20%)
The leader’s honesty, the absence of "skeletons in the closet" and openness are the most important qualities. Respondents note that after many years of deception, trust will be difficult to gain.
Empathy and respect for people (15%)
The leader must understand the problems of ordinary people, empathize with them and respect their choice.
Quotes from interviews: -"A leader who understands us, that we are tired, afraid and just want to live in peace"
-"It's important for him not to look down on him, but to be close to him. Be humane"
-"He must show that he does not consider people as cattle, slaves by nature, etc. He must show that he is ready not only to talk, but also to listen. He must show that he understands what people think, what they are afraid of"
Hope and vision of the future (10%)
Quotes from interviews: -"People must see why they support the leader. This will only work when he shows a vision of the future"
-"We have no sense of the future now. The leader must bring it back"
-"For most silent people, this leader must show them that they are not alone. What could be better"
In the second group of respondents, the most undesirable trait of a leader was populism (32%). The second most important factor (for 24% of respondents) was elitism and isolation from the people.
Respondents are looking for a leader who will avoid arrogance and difficult political discussions and will be honest, sincere, close to the people, with a clear plan of action and non-violent methods.
General findings of the study
1. Social profile of the respondents
Diversity of Audience The study involved 105 people from various social classes and professions, including men and women living both in Russia and abroad. This emphasizes the representativeness of the data.
Apolitical before the war A significant portion of respondents emphasized that before the war they were not interested in politics and did not follow opposition movements. This is important, since the study records the transformation of the views of "ordinary people" not involved in political activism.
The value of "ordinary votes" It is emphasized that the respondents do not belong to a narrow activist layer. Their answers show honest, unbiased views, which makes the results of the study more reliable for analyzing public opinion.
2. Psychological state of respondents
General deterioration Since the beginning of the war, most respondents noted a deterioration in their psycho-emotional state: depression, anxiety, and a feeling of hopelessness. Many complained of isolation, fear of the future and loss of the meaning of life.
Adaptation through avoidance Some respondents managed to restore their inner balance by avoiding news and focusing on their personal lives or work. This indicates natural defense mechanisms aimed at maintaining stability.
Long term effects Even those who have adapted acknowledge that this is a temporary condition. They still feel stressed due to the uncertainty associated with the situation in the country and the possible development of events.
3. Attitude towards the opposition
Disappointment and distance Most respondents expressed disappointment in the current opposition.
The main reasons: — Geographic isolation. Opposition leaders located abroad are perceived as being out of touch with real life in Russia. — Disunity. Frequent conflicts and the lack of a unified strategy undermine the opposition’s credibility. — Accusatory rhetoric. Some respondents noted that the collective accusation of Russians for responsibility for the war causes rejection. Keeping hope alive Despite the criticism, respondents continue to feel a demand for change, indicating a potential base for opposition unification.
4. Demand for a new leader in the opposition
Key qualities — Honesty and empathy; — Ability to listen and speak to people in simple language; — Ability to inspire and act on the basis of a strategic vision. Gender aspect About 30% of respondents expressed a desire to see a female leader. Women leaders are associated with non-violence, humanistic values and the ability to better understand family problems. Focus on the "silent majority" Respondents noted that a leader must be close to ordinary Russians, understand their daily concerns and speak their language. This emphasizes the importance of creating a bridge between the elites and the mass audience.
5. Future and Emigration
Emigration Plans Some respondents expressed a desire to leave Russia. This is primarily due to the deteriorating social and political situation. Many mentioned "red lines" - events (for example, the adoption of the death penalty law) that could finally push them to emigrate. Difficulties of leaving Those who stayed mentioned financial and family obstacles, as well as hope for an improvement in the situation. Some respondents continue to live with a minimal planning horizon, not daring to move permanently.
Conclusion
The study demonstrates a profound transformation of public opinion and the psychological state of Russians in the context of the ongoing conflict.
It is unique in that it captures not only a critique of existing structures, but also a continuing demand for change, for a new type of leader and for a clear future.